The domestic steel market may usher in a "double increase in supply and demand" market

According to the statistics of the China Iron and SteelAssociation, the average daily output of pig iron of key steel enterprises in late February 2025 was 1.986 million tons, an increase of 4.1% month-on-month and 17.5% year-on-year; In late February, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.259 million tons, up 5.0% month-on-month and 17.8% year-on-year; In late February, the average daily output of Steel Products of keysteel enterprises was 2.301 million tons, up 13.0% month-on-month and 23.8% year-on-year.

Judging from the monthly data of the average daily output of key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises, the production capacity release of large and medium-sized steel production enterprises continued to increase, and pig iron, crude steel, and Steel Continued to rise month-on-month. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in February 2025, the daily output of pig iron of key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises was 1.952 million tons, an increase of 4.0% month-on-month, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%.The daily output of crude steel was 2.181 million tons, up 4.8% month-on-month, narrowing by 1.6 percentage points month-on-month and up 3.8% year-on-year.The daily output of steel was 2.097 million tons, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month, an increase of 6.4 percentage points month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 5.5%.

Judging from the change in the monthly blast furnace operating rate, the production release of iron and steel enterprises showed a slight fluctuation trend. According to the survey data of Lange Steel Network, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in China in February 2025 was 75.3%, the same as the average of the previous month.However, the average daily output of molten iron of 201 production enterprises in the country was 2.247 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from the average value of the previous month. According to the calculation of Lange Steel Research Center, as of the end of February, the two main steel varieties measured by the two-week raw material inventory are in a mixed situation, of which the third-level rebar is in a small profit of more than 60 yuan, and the hot coil is in a small loss of nearly 60 yuan. Entering March, due to the imminent peak demand season and the combined impact of macro policy expectations, the production enthusiasm of iron and steel enterprises is still very strong, both the blast furnace operating rate and the average daily output of molten iron have increased.

2025 is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", we must adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, solidly promote high-quality development, further deepen reform in an all-round way, expand high-level opening-up, build a modern industrial system, better coordinate development and security, implement more active and promising macro policies, expand domestic demand, promote the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, stabilize the property market and stock market, prevent and resolve risks and external shocks in key areas, Stabilize expectations, stimulate vitality, promote the sustained economic recovery, complete the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan with high quality, and lay a solid foundation for the good start of the 15th Five-Year Plan.

At the same time, due to the introduction of the 6 trillion yuan debt policy last year, the risk of local government debt has been effectively alleviated, thus making local governments free up a certain amount of space to promote the construction progress of major projects, and this year's fiscal policy is also more active, the fiscal deficit rate is planned to be arranged at about 4 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous year, the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan over the previous year, and the scale of general public budget expenditure is 29.7 trillion yuan. an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan over the previous year, and the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan over the previous year;

It is planned to issue 500 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks to replenish their capital; It is planned to arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, an increase of 500 billion yuan over the previous year, and at the same time, due to the obvious pre-issuance of local special bonds this year, these funds will be mainly used for investment and construction, land acquisition and storage, and the acquisition of stock commercial housing, and the digestion of local government arrears to enterprises.
At present, the domestic steel market will shift from the off-season to the peak season, traditionally speaking, March 15 of each year is considered to be the beginning of the construction season, and there is a certain space for speculation before this time node, since this year due to the constant threat of external "tariff sticks", the confidence of the steel market is insufficient, although in the long run, the "tariff stick" has a greater impact on plate exports, but in the short term, steel mills in April are still relatively good, One is that China's steel export products still maintain strong competitiveness, and there is also a certain "rush to export" situation. At the same time, the upcoming construction season will significantly drive the demand for building materials, so in the next month's time cycle, the domestic steel market may usher in a "double increase in supply and demand" market.